Economic Advisor – Weekly Update

Incomes and spending were a key newsmaker last week with personal income increasing in May by $69.4 billion 0.5 percent, and personal consumption expenditures PCE increasing by $29 billion, or 0.3 percent, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported last week. Disposable personal income DPI grew by $57 billion 0.5 percent, and real disposable income income left after taxes increased 0.4 percent in May. Real PCE ticked up 0.2 percent. Personal saving — DPI less personal outlays — hit $387.6 billion in May, compared with $359.2 billion in April. The personal saving rate — personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — was 3.2 percent in May, compared with 3.0 percent in April. Turning to real estate, sales of new single-family homes in May hit an annual rate of 476,000, marking a 2.1 percent gain over April’s revised rate of 466,000, according to last weeks’ report from the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Compared to last year, May’s sales were 29 percent over the May 2012 estimate of 369,000. Looking at price, the median sales price of new houses sold in May was $263,900, and the average sales price was $307,800. In terms of inventory, the number of new homes for sale at the end of May was 161,000, representing a 4.1-month supply at May’s sales rate. In employment news, the number of first-time claims for unemployment insurance filed during the week ending June 22 hit 346,000, a drop of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 355,000, the Employment and Training Administration reported last week. The four-week moving average was 345,750, a decrease of 2,750 from the prior week’s revised average of 348,500. The total number of insured unemployed Americans during the week ending June 15 ticked down to 2,965,000, a decline of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 2,966,000, the Administration also reported. The four-week moving average was 2,973,250, a slight decline of 9,250 from the prior week’s revised average of 2,982,500. Perhaps it was these trends that buttressed June’s consumer confidence scores. The Conference Board reported its Consumer Confidence Index, which had improved in May, increased again in June to hit 81.4 a baseline of 100 was set in 1985, up from 74.3 in May. The Present Situation Index, which describes how consumers feel about the current economy, increased to 69.2 from 64.8. The Expectations Index, which describes how they think the economy will do in the near future, improved to 89.5 from 80.6 last month. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s Consumers Sentiment Index hit 84.1 in June, which was down, but just barely, from 84.5 in May and well above 73.2 in June 2012. Consumer Sentiment was higher in the past two months than anytime since 2007. The Expectations Index, which describes how consumers expect the economy to perform, rose to 77.8 in June from 75.8 in May. The Current Conditions Index, which describes how consumers feel about the current economy, hit 93.8 in June, which was slightly down from May’s 98. This week, we can expect: Monday — May construction spending from the Census Bureau. Tuesday — June car and truck sales from the auto manufacturers. Wednesday — Initial jobless claims for last week from the Employment and Training Administration; May trade balance from the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Friday — June payrolls, unemployment, earnings and workweek from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

 

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About robertjrussellcompanies

International Real Estate Agent * Insurance Broker * Radio Talk Show Host * Public Speaker * find out about me - visit http://www.robertjrussellcompanies.com
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